Space will definitely be militarized in the next 30 years, but in a different way than what Friedman could imagine 15 years ago.
1. Geosynchronous orbit stations for coordinating air strikes/intelligence with humans on board are super wasteful + it's really easy to shoot them down. Much easier to have starlink-like redundant polar orbit satellite constellations everywhere, several thousand of them, doing everything from communications to targeting to positioning to radar.
2. By 2030-35 Russia will have nuclear powered megawatt-class radars and even maybe space-based laser canons. China will join 5 years later. The US will join in 2040-45. Space-based nuclear-powered radars will be an indispensable part of any large nation's anti-stealth and anti-ICBM/anti-hypersonic capabilities. The only way to globally track and target small and fast objects in space is using powerful high-frequency radars in orbit.
3. If by militarized you mean "weapons will be placed in orbit" then I agree -they won't be, it's mostly pointless, easy to track, easy to shoot down. Using space stations to bomb backwards nations is overkill, not cost effective for the rest, unless maybe you put thousands of nukes permanently in orbit.
Space will definitely be militarized in the next 30 years, but in a different way than what Friedman could imagine 15 years ago.
1. Geosynchronous orbit stations for coordinating air strikes/intelligence with humans on board are super wasteful + it's really easy to shoot them down. Much easier to have starlink-like redundant polar orbit satellite constellations everywhere, several thousand of them, doing everything from communications to targeting to positioning to radar.
2. By 2030-35 Russia will have nuclear powered megawatt-class radars and even maybe space-based laser canons. China will join 5 years later. The US will join in 2040-45. Space-based nuclear-powered radars will be an indispensable part of any large nation's anti-stealth and anti-ICBM/anti-hypersonic capabilities. The only way to globally track and target small and fast objects in space is using powerful high-frequency radars in orbit.
3. If by militarized you mean "weapons will be placed in orbit" then I agree -they won't be, it's mostly pointless, easy to track, easy to shoot down. Using space stations to bomb backwards nations is overkill, not cost effective for the rest, unless maybe you put thousands of nukes permanently in orbit.